We’re Not Spending Too Much on Ukraine

Republicans are pushing the ludicrous idea that returning Iran’s access to its frozen funds (which are now sitting in a bank account in Qatar) somehow led to the current fighting in Israel. It’s ludicrous, but baseless right-wing propaganda can have an effect: support for Ukraine appears to be weakening in the US. Paul Krugman explains why this is stupid:

Right-wing hard-liners, both in Congress and outside, claim to be upset about the amount weā€™re spending supporting Ukraine. But if they really cared about the financial burden of aid, theyā€™d make the minimal effort required to get the numbers right. No, aid to Ukraine isnā€™t undermining the future of Social Security or making it impossible to secure our border or consumingĀ 40 percentĀ of Americaā€™s G.D.P.

How much are we actually spending supporting Ukraine? In the 18 months after the Russian invasion, U.S. aid totaledĀ $77 billion. That may sound like a lot. It is a lot compared with the tiny sums we usually allocate to foreign aid. But total federal outlays are currently running at more thanĀ $6 trillion a year, or more than $9 trillion every 18 months, so Ukraine aid accounts for less than 1 percent of federal spending (and less than 0.3 percent ofĀ G.D.P.). TheĀ military portionĀ of that spending is equal to less than 5 percent of Americaā€™sĀ defense budget.

Incidentally, the United States is by no means bearing the burden of aiding Ukraine alone. In the past, [our maniacal former president] and others have complainedĀ that European nations arenā€™t spending enough on their own defense. But when it comes to Ukraine, European countries and institutions collectively have made substantially largerĀ aid commitmentsĀ than we have. Notably, most of Europe, including France, Germany and Britain, has promised aid that isĀ higher as a percentage of G.D.P.Ā than the U.S. commitment.

But back to the costs of aiding Ukraine: Given how small a budget item that aid is, claims that aid to Ukraine somehow makes it impossible to do other necessary things, such as securing the border, are nonsense. MAGA types arenā€™t known for getting their numbers right or, for that matter, caring whether they get their numbers right, but I doubt that even they really believe that the monetary costs of helping Ukraine are insupportable.

And the benefits of aiding a beleaguered democracy are huge. Remember, before the war, Russia was widely viewed as a major military power, which a majority of Americans saw as aĀ critical threatĀ (and whose nonwoke military some RepublicansĀ exalted). That power has now been humbled….

Finally, what even Republicans used to call the free world has clearly been strengthened. NATO has risen to the occasion, confounding the cynics, and isĀ adding members. Western weapons haveĀ proved their effectiveness.

Those are big payoffs for outlays that are a small fraction of what we spent inĀ Iraq and Afghanistan, and letā€™s not forget that Ukrainians are doing the fighting and dying. Why, then, do MAGA politicians want to cut Ukraine off?

The answer is, unfortunately, obvious. Whatever Republican hard-liners may say, they want Putin to win. They view the Putin regimeā€™s cruelty and repression as admirable features that America should emulate. They support aĀ wannabe dictatorĀ at home and are sympathetic to actual dictators abroad.

So pay no attention to all those complaints about how much weā€™re spending in Ukraine. They arenā€™t justified by the actual cost of aid, and the people claiming to be worried about the cost donā€™t really care about the money. What they are, basically, is enemies of democracy, both abroad and at home.

Wise Legal Advice Biden May Not Be Getting and Possibly Good News About Russia

As is often the case, there is a golden mean between paying no attention to politics and paying too much. Since I don’t have President’s Biden ear, I’m guilty of the latter (I’m pretty sure the messages I’ve sent him didn’t made it to his desk).

Nevertheless, here is some brief discussion of the debt ceiling I read today that I want to share:

From Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo:

Even though this wonā€™t come as new news to many of you, the following is still a clarifying prism. A negotiation is usually two sides haggling to get things they want. Leverage is often unequal…. But in this negotiation, Republicans are getting various policy priorities and Democrats are ā€œgettingā€ Republican agreement not to create a global financial crisis. Thatā€™s extortion, not negotiation. A government canā€™t operate in any consistent or sustainable way when policy deliverables go to the party willing to credibly threaten the most damage to the country.

And from two law professors with fancy titles who work at respected universities:

Our advice has always amounted to a version of the now-overused mantra: ā€œKeep calm and carry on.ā€ The best thing to do in a debt ceiling crisis is to continue to raise the money necessary to pay the governmentā€™s bills. If Republicans block action on the debt ceiling, the President would indeed break the law by issuing new debt. But among his options at that point, all of which would be bad, that would be the closest thing to a plain-vanilla response. We would not see the government stiff its creditors.

Instead, the Treasury Department would do what it always does: go into the financial markets and raise funds from willing lenders. Those lenders would almost certainly demand higher interest payments than otherwise, which would offer the irony that the Republicansā€™ vows to ā€œdo something about the debtā€ will result in more debt, not less. But in a world of their making, borrowing money as it is needed, in as close to the normal way as possible, will be President Bidenā€™s best (and least unconstitutional) option.

Elsewhere, there’s evidence that some Russian soldiers are switching sides and actually taking back territory from the Russian army. It isn’t a surprise that some of the troops don’t care for Putin at all. This is a good sign, combined with the fact that Ukraine is offering special treatment for soldiers who surrender, including care overseen by the Red Cross and no requirement to ever return to Russia. We used to think high-level officials might be the ones to do something about Putin. Maybe the uprising will start in the lower ranks. After all, the Russian Revolution began with mutiny in the army.

The Untold Story of “Russiagate” and the Road to War in Ukraine

If you run a newspaper and want people to pay attention to an important article, don’t make it 10,000 words long (which would amount to 30 typewritten pages) and don’t publish it two days before a national election. Jim Rutenberg, a reporter for The New York Times, wrote just that kind of article. “The Untold Story of ‘Russiagate’ and the Road to War in Ukraine” was published on November 6, 2022, two days before the midterm election, and hardly anybody seems to have noticed.

A few days earlier, the Times had printed a summary of Rutenberg’s article, written by Rutenberg himself, but the summary was just one of many “live” updates that day regarding the war in Ukraine. The Times put it between “Russian military bloggers criticize the Kremlin for rejoining the Ukraine grain deal” and “Poland erects a razor-wire fence along its border with Russiaā€™s Kaliningrad”. I doubt many people noticed.

Here’s the summary:

Russiaā€™s meddling in Trump-era politics was more directly connected to the current war than previously understood.

President Vladimir V. Putinā€™s assault on Ukraine and his attack on American democracy have been treated largely as two distinct story lines.

Yet those two narratives came together on a summer night in 2016 when Donald J. Trumpā€™s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, met with Paul Kilimnik, a Russian citizen who ran the Kyiv office of Manafortā€™s international consulting firm.

Mr. Kilimnik shared a secret plan calling for the creation of an autonomous republic in Ukraineā€™s east, giving Mr. Putin effective control of the countryā€™s industrial heartland, where Kremlin-backed ā€œseparatistsā€ were waging a two-year-old shadow war.

The scheme cut against decades of American policy promoting a free and united Ukraine, but Mr. T____ was already suggesting that he would upend the diplomatic status quo; if elected, Mr. Kilimnik believed, Mr. T____ could help make the plan a reality.

First, though, he would have to win. Which brought the men to the second prong of their agenda ā€” internal campaign polling data tracing a path through battleground states to victory. Manafortā€™s sharing of that information would have been unremarkable if not for one important piece of Mr. Kilimnikā€™s biography: He was not simply a colleague; he was, U.S. officials would later assert, a Russian agent.

In the weeks that followed, Russian operatives would intensify their hacking and disinformation campaign to damage Hillary Clinton and help turn the election toward T____. What the plan Mr. Kilimnik offered on paper is essentially what Putin … is now trying to seize through sham referendums and illegal annexation.

This second draft of history emerges from a review of the hundreds of pages of documents produced by investigators for theĀ special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, and for theĀ Republican-led Senate Select Committee on Intelligence;Ā from impeachment-hearing transcripts and the recent crop of Russiagate memoirs; and from interviews with nearly 50 people in the United States and Ukraine, including four hourlong conversations with Mr. Manafort himself.

The Russia investigation and its offshoots never did prove coordination between theĀ Trump campaign and Moscow, though they did document numerous connections. But to view the record through the war, now in its ninth month, is to discover a trail of underappreciated signals telegraphing the depth of Mr. Putinā€™s Ukrainian obsession.

Mr. Rutenberg could have added that viewing the historical record in the context of the war also helps explain Russia’s support for the ex-president and why he and his most rabid supporters are still taking Russia’s side.

The Russians Are Running Away

According to the Kiev Post, the stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive that began earlier this month has now reached the border with Russia near the town of Hoptivka. Let’s hope Ukraine can secure the thousands of square miles they’ve now recovered and eventually restore all of its national borders.

Untitled

Tonight, President Zelensky had a message for Russia:

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The Pro-Russia, Anti-Ukraine Party

Some Republican lowlife actually said the unindicted co-conspirator who leads their cult was, unlike Biden, “tough on Russia”. (Shamelessness is their superpower). Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine reminds us of what happened on planet Earth:

On February 25, the day after Russian tanks rolled intoĀ Ukraine, Lee Smith published anĀ essayĀ inĀ TabletĀ arguing that Ukraine had brought on its problems. Smith, a house stenographer for RepresentativeĀ Devin NunesĀ and the author of two pro-T____ books, unburdened himself of a long list of Ukrainian provocations. In 2014, Ukraineā€™s people rejectedĀ Vladimir Putinā€™s generous offer to remain a Russian dependency and voted out his handpicked presidential candidate. A few years later, Ukrainian Americans accused Russia of hacking Democratic emails and extortingĀ Volodymyr ZelenskyyĀ ā€” the guilt for which, in Smith and Putinā€™s view, was shared by the country their parents had fled. These defiant actions ā€œreinforced Putinā€™s view that, especially in partnership with the Democrats, Ukraine did not understand its true place in the world as a buffer state.ā€ The invasion was a terrible shame, conceded Smith, but this is what happens when a country has the temerity to offend Putin and T____ and assert its independence.

Putinā€™sĀ war with UkraineĀ is being fought to settle a single question: Does his neighboring state have the right to make its own democratic decisions or must it subsist as a Russian vassal?

President Bidenā€™s marshaling of aĀ strong and unitedĀ EuropeanĀ responseĀ has thrown into sharp relief the contrast with his predecessorā€™s ā€œAmerica Firstā€ bluster. But there is an even more fundamental contrast between Bidenā€™s multilateralism and T____ā€™s nationalism, one that goes beyond diplomatic skill to core ideology: Many corners of the American right, includingĀ D____ T____, agree with Putinā€™s position.

Putin views a democratic Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime for two very good reasons. First, Ukraineā€™s majority prefers economic integration with Europe rather than Russia. Second, all strongmen are mainly preoccupied with maintaining power, and the existence of prosperous democracy in a neighboring country is a dangerous counterexample.

Twenty years ago, there was no significant reservoir of opposition to Ukrainian independence and democracy. The burgeoning alliance between Russian nationalists and America Firsters was set in motion whenĀ Paul ManafortĀ went to work for the pro-Russian Party of Regions in Ukraine in 2004. Manafort, once one of the most powerful Republican lobbyists in Washington, had begun a globetrotting career selling his services to dictators. His Ukrainian client, Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, was Putinā€™s main organ for maintaining control of his neighboring country.

Putin nurtured a cadre of pliant Ukrainian oligarchs and functionaries who served a devious double purpose. They would faithfully weaken Ukrainian democracy on his behalf, and then he could turn around to the outside world and hold up Ukraineā€™s corruption as a justification for why it should not be treated like a real country.

He paired this with a slowly escalating campaign of violence. Putin and his allies would violently intimidate their political opposition to prevent them from gaining control of Ukraine. In 2004, Putinā€™s agents poisoned Viktor Yushchenko, the pro-western presidential candidate. (This occurred four years before the United States invited Ukraine to join NATO, a sequence that shows Russiaā€™s threats against Ukraine drove its interest in joining the alliance, rather than the reverse, as Putin and his defenders have suggested.) Ten years later, Manafortā€™s client unleashed snipers and thugs to drive away peaceful protesters before a democratic revolution forced him to flee the country. After Russophiles lost control of Ukraineā€™s government, Putin started using militias to seize chunks of territory.

At the tail end of the Obama administration, both Democrats and Republicans supported democratization, westernization, and reform in Ukraine. When the Obama administration pressured Ukraine to fire ineffective prosecutor Viktor Shokin ā€” a key step forward for advancing the rule of law in Ukraine ā€” a bipartisan letter commended its efforts and did not draw any significant domestic opposition.

T____ā€™s rise introduced to the Republican Party a figure who shared Putinā€™s perspective toward Ukraine and often echoed his propaganda. When Putin ginned up demonstrations in eastern Ukraine as a pretext to hive off chunks of land in 2014, T____Ā gushed, ā€œSo smart, when you see the riots in a country because theyā€™re hurting the Russians,Ā Okay, weā€™ll go and take it overĀ ā€¦ You have to give him a lot of credit.ā€ After winning the nomination, T____ promised to consider recognizing Putinā€™s land seizure because ā€œthe people of Crimea, from what Iā€™ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.ā€

T____ brought on Manafort to run his campaign, which further linked Ukraineā€™s conflict with Russia to the American domestic struggle. Ukrainians released a ā€œblack bookā€ of evidence of secret payments by the previous, pro-Russian regime, which implicated Manafort in an embezzling scandal for which he was eventually convicted. After it hacked Democratic emails and released them to aid T____ā€™s candidacy, Russia claimed it had been framed by Ukraine. T____ subsequently endorsed this theory. (ā€œThey brought in another company that I hear is Ukrainian-based,ā€ heĀ toldĀ the Associated Press a few months after taking office. ā€œI heard itā€™s owned by a very rich Ukrainian; thatā€™s what I heard.ā€)

T____, of course, was impeached the first time for pressuring Zelenskyy to smear Biden, and his motive was primarily to gain an advantage over his opponent. But he also had clearly absorbed Putinā€™s idea that Ukraine was corrupt and undeserving of sovereignty. T____ regularly flummoxed his staff by insisting Ukraine was ā€œhorrible, corrupt peopleā€ and ā€œwasnā€™t a ā€˜real country,ā€™ that it had always been a part of Russia, and that it was ā€˜totally corrupt,ā€™ā€ the WashingtonĀ PostĀ reported. (The element of Russian propaganda here is not the claim that corruption exists in Ukraine, which is true, but the premise that this somehow destroys its claim to sovereignty or justifies subjugation to its far more corrupt neighbor.)

By the end of T____ā€™s presidency, the distinction between his agenda in Ukraine and the Russian agenda in Ukraine was difficult to discern. In the aftermath of T____ā€™s first impeachment, Rudy Giuliani inherited Manafortā€™s role as a liaison to the pro-Russian elements in Ukraineā€™s polity. In his travels through the country, Giuliani linked up with Party of Regions apparatchiks as well as known Russian intelligence agents, ginning up business proposals and allegations to fling against Biden. T____ā€™s agents, Russian agents, and pro-Russian Ukrainian apparatchiks were speaking in almost indistinguishable terms.

That view of the world is expressed cogently, if chillingly, in Smithā€™s essay depicting Ukraine as a tool of the joint enemies of Putin and T____. And it has bled widely into the conservative mind. In the run-up to the 2020 election, numerous right-wing pundits warned darkly that American liberals were fomenting a ā€œcolor revolutionā€ akin to the pro-democratic uprisings that had broken out against several of Putinā€™s vassal states. Both their narrative and their diction depicted pro-democracy activists as a sinister cabal and Putin their innocent victim.

By the outset of Russiaā€™s invasion, pro-Putinist rhetoric was common. ā€œUkraine, to be technical, is not a democracy,ā€ asserted Tucker Carlson. ā€œAnd by the way, Ukraine is a pure client state of the United States State Department.ā€ To be sure, this view remained a minority on the right ā€” and just as many of T____ā€™s most fervent supporters recoiled at the January 6 insurrection, even many Putin defenders conceded a full-scale invasion went too far. Still, Putinā€™s claims against Ukraine have received endorsements from both the rightā€™s most popular politician and its most popular media personality. That is not nothing.

It remains to be seen whether the Biden administrationā€™s combination of sanctions, diplomacy, and military aid will be enough to save Ukraine from the predations of its neighboring dictator. The military odds remain favorable to Russia. But as Putinā€™s militarized irredentism grows larger on the world stage, an increasingly relevant consideration in American politics is the fact that only one American party truly disagrees with it.