Ignoring the Next Six Months – Day Two

I set up my browser to stop me (ok, discourage me) from visiting a few sites that tend to upset my digestion (yes, Salon, I’m looking at you). But I haven’t entirely cut myself off from the current events pipeline.

So I saw the story about Trump’s plans to address the national debt. Here’s the headline from a news story in the New York Times:

“Donald Trump’s Idea to Cut National Debt: Get Creditors to Accept Less”

And a representative passage:

But Mr. Trump’s statement might show the limits of translating his business acumen into the world of government finance. The United States simply cannot pursue a similar strategy….The government runs an annual deficit, so it must borrow to retire existing debt. Any measures that would reduce the value of the existing debt … would increase the cost of issuing new debt. Such a threat also could undermine the stability of global financial markets.

Simply because he will be the official nominee of the Republican Party, the Times treats him with respect. The “might” and “could” imply that Trump’s approach isn’t out of the question. Maybe he has a creative solution that never occurred to previous Presidents and Secretaries of the Treasury. After all, he doesn’t have mere business “experience”. He has business “acumen”! In the ordinary sense of the word, that means “keen insight” or “shrewdness”. Maybe we were wrong about this Trump guy.

But less encumbered by traditional journalistic standards, Vox, the online site that attempts to “explain the news”, came up with this headline for the same story:

“Donald Trump just threatened to cause an unprecedented global financial crisis”

And a representative passage:

With this statement, Trump not only revealed a dangerous ignorance about the operation of the national monetary system and the global economic order, but also offered a brilliant case study in the profound risks of attempting to apply the logic of a private business enterprise to the task of running the United States of America.

I offer this post as an example of how the “mainstream” journalists will lift Trump up during the next six months. It will be easy to find cases in which the same people tear Clinton down in an attempt to be “objective” and “non-partisan”.

PS – They’re selling “Never Trump” lawn signs online for less than $20 (plus shipping and handling; stand not included). Hurry while supplies last!

On Ignoring the Next Six Months

Almost exactly one year ago, I pointed out that we should ignore the upcoming 18 months:

Thousands of articles will be written. Hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent. There will be interviews and debates. There will be speeches and rallies. There will be polls and predictions. Strategies and personalities will be analyzed. Policies will even be discussed.

We can safely ignore it all.

The only question regarding the presidential election in November 2016 is whether we should elect a Republican or Democrat. If you’ve been paying attention at all, you already know the answer.

Three months later, I backtracked a bit, did some subtraction and said we shouldn’t completely ignore the next 15 months. Senator Sanders had announced his candidacy and deserved a hearing:

Since Sanders is worth paying attention to, even if he doesn’t get the nomination, I stand corrected.

Now that the contest between Sanders and Clinton is over (even though he won’t admit it), I advise everyone to ignore the next six months. I mean, for god’s sake, the Republican id has spoken and spewed forth a nominee who – although wonderfully representative of the Grand Old Party – is beyond the pale, almost beyond belief.

Since it’s absolutely necessary that we all vote for Hillary in November (and Democrats running for the Senate and House so she’ll have someone to work with), we can safely ignore the millions of words, sounds and images that will come our way between now and November 8th. Not only because there is no reason to think about who to vote for, but because paying attention to all that “news” and “analysis” will give us a lot of unnecessary stress.

Imagine, for example, that Hillary Clinton says something like this:

Look, we have serious economic problems in many parts of our country….Instead of dividing people the way Donald Trump does, let’s reunite around policies that will bring jobs and opportunities to all these under-served poor communities. 

So for example, I’m the only candidate which has a policy about how to bring economic opportunity using clean renewable energy as the key into coal country. Because we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business, right, Tim?  

And we’re going to make it clear that we don’t want to forget those people. Those people labored in those mines for generations, losing their health, often losing their lives to turn on our lights and power our factories. 

Now we’ve got to move away from coal and all the other fossil fuels, but I don’t want to move away from the people who did the best they could to produce the energy that we relied on. 

So whether it’s coal country or Indian country or poor urban areas, there is a lot of poverty in America…. I am passionate about this, which is why I have put forward specific plans about how we incentivize more jobs, more investment in poor communities, and put people to work. 

 Then this will happen:

Trump offered himself as a friend of coal. He compared stalled federal rules curbing emissions from coal-fired power plants to regulations that he said have weakened his hair spray.

“It used to be real good,” he said. “Today, you put the hair spray on, it’s good for 12 minutes.” 

He promised to help revitalize the battered coal industry.

“We’re going to put the miners back to work,” Trump said. “You’re going to be working your asses off.”

A few serious journalists might then analyze the economics of the coal industry and conclude that mines are shutting down because coal mining is expensive and other forms of energy are cheaper. They’ll cite facts like this: the entire domestic coal industry was worth $60 billion five years ago; now it’s worth $22 billion. Coal mining is becoming obsolete.

Other journalists, however, will consider the politics of the situation. How will Clinton’s “gaffe” (we’re going to put coal out of business) and Trump’s thrilling promise play in coal country? Others will ask why Clinton can’t connect with voters in the terrifically visceral way her opponent can: “I mean, why does she insist on talking down to average Americans (like [that loser] Al Gore did 16 years ago)?”

Unfortunately, we are safe in assuming that, as a Vox article says: “the media will lift Trump up and tear Clinton down”. That’s so likely and so unpleasant to read about that it’s hard for me to bring it up:

The US political ecosystem — media, consultants, power brokers, think tanks, foundations, officeholders, the whole thick network of institutions and individuals involved in national politics — cannot deal with a presidential election in which one candidate is obviously and uncontroversially the superior … choice. The machine is simply not built to handle a race that’s over before it’s begun.

The author makes three important points:

The political ecosystem needs two balanced parties to survive… there are entire classes of professionals whose jobs are premised on the model of two roughly equal sides, clashing endlessly. The Dance of Two Parties sustains the consultants and activists… It sustains the party hacks and grifters.

It certainly sustains the Republican politicians now announcing their support for someone they’ve been mocking and criticizing all year long. These characters need suckers to vote Republican if they’re going to stay relevant.

Secondly:

The media cannot countenance a lopsided race…The campaign press requires, for its ongoing health and advertising revenue, a real race. It needs controversies. “Donald Trump is not fit to be president” may be the accurate answer to pretty much every relevant question about the race, but it’s not an interesting answer…. What’s more, the campaign media’s self-image is built on not being partisan… How does that even work if one side is offering up a flawed centrist and the other is offering up a vulgar xenophobic demagogue? It would be profoundly out of character for reporters to spend the six months between now and the election writing, again and again, that one side’s candidate is a liar and a racist and an egomaniac.

Even though they know he is.

And finally:

Just as the media will need to elevate Trump, it will need to bring Clinton down. Going after Clinton will be journalists’ default strategy for proving that they’re not biased. They will need opportunities to be “tough” toward Clinton … to demonstrate their continued independence…Will the Washington press corps chase after ridiculous personal attacks and conspiracy theories regarding Hillary Clinton, whispered into their ears by right-wing hacks [and trumpeted by Trump himself, of course]? Ha ha. Have you met the Washington press corps? They have been doing that since the early 1990s. Clinton rules mean guilty until proven innocent, then and now. The Washington media is a machine that transforms crap about Clintons into headlines, and Trump is a bottomless supply of crap.

Short of moving into the Unabomber’s old cabin, I’m not sure how to avoid this coming onslaught of crap. I don’t have cable TV or much of the other kind. Nobody tosses a newspaper on the driveway. I could try to force myself to avoid the online New York Times, New York Magazine, Vox, Salon and The Guardian. There is certainly plenty of other stuff to read.

Hey, maybe I’ll use Google Chrome’s “Block Site” extension! I’ll block dangerous sites so I can’t visit them and create a master password I’ll never remember. Then, on November 9th, the day after the election, I’ll buy a new computer in order to see what everyone’s talking about. And if the election turns out very, very badly (but seriously, that’s not going to happen), I’ll go searching for that crazy guy’s cabin in Montana.

Hillary Clinton: Surprise Upon Surprise

Which presidential candidates are Americans most enthusiastic about? According to a Gallup poll, 65% of Trump’s supporters are either extremely or very enthusiastic about his candidacy. That’s not a surprise. His supporters are nothing if not enthusiastic. What’s unexpected is which Democrat has the most enthusiastic supporters. Gallup found that Hillary Clinton’s supporters are more enthusiastic about her than Bernie Sanders’s are about him. Fifty-four percent of Clinton supporters say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic about their favorite candidate vs. 44% of Sanders supporters. Given how much publicity Feeling the Bern has received, that’s quite a surprise. 

But considering how well Clinton has done in primary elections this year (as opposed to the small-scale caucuses that have favored Sanders), we should expect that she has lots of enthusiastic supporters. Counting both primaries and caucuses, she has received 8.9 million votes vs. 6.4 million for Sanders. Winning by that margin in a general election would qualify as a landslide victory.

One might ask, however, why so many Americans are enthusiastically supporting such a devious and dishonest person? It’s probably because they don’t think she’s as devious and dishonest as the Republicans, many in the press and some Sanders supporters claim. Jill Abramson, a former editor of the New York Times, published an article yesterday with the title: “This May Shock You. Hillary Clinton Is Fundamentally Honest”. The article is worth reading in full, but here’s a little bit of it:

As an editor I’ve launched investigations into her business dealings, her fundraising, her foundation and her marriage. As a reporter my stories stretch back to Whitewater. I’m not a favorite in Hillaryland. That makes what I want to say next surprising. Hillary Clinton is fundamentally honest and trustworthy….

… Politifact, a Pulitzer prize-winning fact-checking organization, gives Clinton the best truth-telling record of any of the 2016 presidential candidates. She beats Sanders and Kasich and crushes Cruz and Trump…

Abramson says Clinton distrusts the press more than any other politician she’s ever covered and that she needs to resist her strong desire to protect her privacy.  If Clinton were less secretive, Abramson argues, fewer people would think she’s hiding something. But Abramson also worries that too many people expect “purity” from female politicians. No successful politicians are pure, not even female ones, but Hillary Clinton may be purer than most. What a surprise!