Two Pieces of Good News from Washington

Speaker of the House John Boehner allowed a straightforward “clean vote” on raising the debt ceiling instead of holding the world economy hostage again. Many right-wingers are outraged. Maybe one day Congress will get rid of the debt ceiling altogether, since raising it merely allows the government to borrow money to pay bills Congress has already approved.

Secondly, Janet Yellen testified before Congress for the first time in her new role as chairman of the Federal Reserve. It’s hard to understand why President Obama initially seems to have preferred someone else for the job. There is a nice, clear summary of her testimony from John Cassidy at the New YorkerThis is his conclusion (calling her “dovish” means she’s not an “inflation hawk”, i.e. fighting inflation isn’t her one big priority):

She’s a historic figure. I am not just referring to her gender. I’m talking about her approach to policy making, and the emphasis she puts on creating jobs and reducing unemployment. “Since the financial crisis and the depths of the recession, substantial progress has been made in restoring the economy to health and in strengthening the financial system,” she said toward the end of her prepared remarks. “Still, there is more to do. Too many Americans remain unemployed, inflation remains below our longer-run objective, and the work of making the financial system more robust has not yet been completed.”

It’s been a long time since we’ve had a Fed chief come to office declaring that unemployment is too high, inflation is too low, and that we need to keep those Wall Street bounders in check. (Bernanke ended up saying some of these things, but he didn’t start out saying them.) In a post last year, I suggested that Yellen could be the most dovish Fed boss since … the Great Depression, and I noted that, “if Yellen does take over from Bernanke next February, there’s no reason to doubt that concern for the unemployed will remain her leitmotif.” Nothing she said today was inconsistent with that description.

Now That That’s (Almost) Over

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(until the next time…)

How Obama Could Protect the Economy and Get Rid of Boehner at the Same Time

The 14th Amendment was added to the U.S. Constitution in 1868 in the aftermath of the Civil War. It deals with issues resulting from that conflict. Its most famous language is the so-called “equal protection” clause: no state shall “deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws”.

The rebellious Southern states were required to ratify the 14th Amendment in order to regain representation in Congress. Of course, since they were traitors (a.k.a. “rebels”), Southern politicians bitterly opposed the 14th Amendment. How dare the Federal government require that all persons, including former slaves, receive “equal protection of the laws”!

Now, 152 years after the Southern rebellion, we are facing a new crisis, primarily instigated by politicians from the same Southern states. This time it would be a financial and economic crisis, brought about by America’s failure to pay its debts. Nobody knows how the crisis would play out, but since bonds issued by the Treasury Department are the foundation of our nation’s banking system and play a vital role in the banking systems of other countries, it’s likely that America’s failure to honor its debts would do more damage to the global economy than the horrendous financial crisis of 2008.

The Constitution makes no mention of a debt ceiling. That limitation on the Treasury Department’s ability to take on new debt (i.e. to borrow money by selling government bonds) was foolishly imposed by Congress in the Liberty Bond Act of 1917. With that law, Congress gave itself the authority to set a maximum dollar amount for the federal debt, despite the fact that it’s Congress that tells the President how much money to spend when it approves the Federal budget.

Since the members of Congress are relatively sensible for the most part, they periodically raise the debt limit so the Federal government has enough money to do the various things the law requires it to do (make Medicare payments, buy cruise missiles, etc.).

If Congress refuses to raise the debt limit, therefore, the President is caught in a dilemma. He either has to borrow more money without Congressional approval or not pay what the government owes to bondholders, employees, government contractors, retirees and so on — thereby doing untold damage to the world’s economy and our own national security.

Fortunately, the 14th Amendment includes a clause devoted to the national debt. Section 4 of the amendment states:

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any state shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Legal scholars are now arguing about which law the President should obey. I’m not a legal scholar, but I have no doubt that the appropriate thing for the President (any President) to do if Congress fails to raise the debt limit, thereby “questioning the validity” of the public debt, is to obey the Constitution and borrow whatever funds are necessary to pay the government’s bills.

The Constitution, after all, is the “supreme law of the land”. Even crazy Tea Party people claim to honor the Constitution. The Constitution, which requires the President to “preserve, protect and defend” it, should take precedence over the Liberty Bond Act of 1917.

The last time there was a Republican-generated debt ceiling crisis, the President ruled out the 14th Amendment as a solution. At yesterday’s press conference, however, he mentioned the 14th Amendment but didn’t rule it out. He did say it isn’t a “magic bullet” and made the valid point that bonds issued without clear Congressional approval might be of questionable value. For example, buyers would probably demand higher interest rates before purchasing such government securities.

Nevertheless, it still seems that the most prudent course would be for the President to ignore the debt ceiling and continue to issue government bonds. In fact, it might be a wonderful strategy.

One likely outcome is that the Republican majority in the House of Representatives would impeach the President, just like they impeached President Clinton. But the Democrats in the Senate would never convict Obama of “high crimes and misdemeanors” for using his emergency powers to protect our national security. In fact, it’s very likely that the House Republicans would become even less popular than they are now, leading to gains for Democrats in the 2014 mid-term election.

Some recent polling suggests the Democrats might pick up as many as 30 seats in the House if the election were held today. Since they only need 18 more seats to become the majority party in the House, Obama needs to do whatever he can to maintain the Republicans’ unpopularity. Goading them into a misguided impeachment vote could do the trick, giving the Democrats control of both houses of Congress for the last two years of his Presidency. No more Speaker of the House John Boehner!

The Republicans would still have the filibuster in the Senate, of course, but that’s a topic for another day.

The Fire This Time

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More from political cartoonist David Horsey of the Los Angeles Times here:

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-republicans-blame-obama-20131006,0,2739790.story

Jonathan Chait’s conclusion to a thoughtful article in New York magazine:

In our Founders’ defense, it’s hard to design any political system strong enough to withstand a party as ideologically radical and epistemically closed as the contemporary GOP. (Its proximate casus belli—forestalling the onset of universal health insurance—is alien to every other major conservative party in the industrialized world.) The tea-party insurgents turn out to be right that the Obama era has seen a fundamental challenge to the constitutional order of American government. They were wrong about who was waging it.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/nationalinterest/government-shutdown-2013-10/

What Would Boehner Do? A Political Cartoonist’s Answer

The New York Times doesn’t do political cartoons, except the ones on Sunday by Brian McFadden:

{Unfortunately, the link is broken, but you can see the cartoon by going to the address below and then using the arrow on the right until you get to the one for October 6, 2013}

http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/07/08/opinion/sunday/the-strip.html#1

There’s a long article in the Times today about how the right-wingers have been planning this crisis for months. It might be too depressing to read the whole article, so here’s a brief quote:

A defunding “tool kit” created in early September included talking points for the question, “What happens when you shut down the government and you are blamed for it?” The suggested answer was the one House Republicans give today: “We are simply calling to fund the entire government except for the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.”

Boehner was on television this morning, trying to explain his position:

“We’re not going to pass a clean debt limit increase,” the Ohio Republican said in a television interview. “I told the president, there’s no way we’re going to pass one. The votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit, and the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us.”

Of course, there are enough votes in the House to open the government and raise the debt limit, which is why Boehner won’t allow a vote to take place. And, of course, Obama had a meeting with Congressional leaders, including Boehner, a few days ago. Senate Democrats have been requesting budget negotiations with House Republicans for months, but the Republicans have refused to meet. What Boehner means when he says “having a conversation” is “giving into our demands”.

Pardon my French, but Boehner is what we used to call at work “a lying sack of shit”.  

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/06/us/a-federal-budget-crisis-months-in-the-planning.html?ref=politics

http://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/Weekend-in-Washington-yields-little-on-shutdown-4873299.php

P.S. – Pittsburgh 5, St. Louis 3. The Pirates now lead the 5-game series 2-1. It might be over tomorrow.