Everything wrong with how we think of spending money can be seen in the current negotiations over the social infrastructure bill Democrats hope to pass through reconciliation. But to put this in its proper context, letās consider another, much bigger bill.
On Thursday, by a vote ofĀ 316 to 113, the HouseĀ passed the National Defense Authorization Act, which will fund our military operations to the tune of $768 billion in the coming year. The nay votes were mostly conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats, presumably dissenting for opposite reasons.
If youāve been following the reconciliation debate ā in which people have been absolutely obsessed with the supposedly terrifying number of $3.5 trillion [Note: which ignores the taxes and cost savings that would pay for it!!!] ā you might have thought the defense bill would produce enormous breast-beating about out-of-control spending and debt. After all, that $3.5 trillion is over 10 years, or $350 billion a year, less than half of what weāre going to spend on the military.
But thatās not what happened. . . .Ā
There were no painful negotiations, no ultimatums, no desperate threats. President Biden did not have to beg and plead to secure anyoneās vote. And you sure didnāt see centrist members of Congress expressing deep concern about its size, claiming it was irresponsible to add so much to the national debt ā although weāll easily be spending $8 or $9 trillion on the military over the same 10-year period.
Yet all that has happened on the social infrastructure bill. The billās final spending total ā whatever it turns out to be ā has been imbued with a bizarre talismanic power, as though it represents something meaningfulĀ above and beyond what itās actually buying.
Consider Sen. Joe Manchin IIIās (D-W.Va.)Ā descriptionĀ of a White House meeting President Biden held with centrists to try to work out whatās holding back their support:
āHe just basically said find a number youāre comfortable with,ā Manchin said, adding that Bidenās message was to āplease just work on it. Give me a number”.ā Manchin told reporters that he didnāt give Biden a number . . .Ā
. . . Not only do the centrists not know their preferred number, they donāt seem to have many real opinions aboutĀ what should actually be in the bill. They may object to an item here or there if you press them, but clearly their perspective starts from the conviction that $3.5 trillion is too big; theyāll fill in the details later.
But thatās completely backward. To negotiate a bill such as this is, you ought to begin by deciding what you want to do, thenĀ figure out how much it will cost.
Itās not that cost is completely irrelevant, or that there are some things weād like to do but wonāt because theyāre too expensive. But we have plenty of money to work with, and the defense bill proves it.
If we decided the reconciliation billās paid family leave and universal pre-K and free community college and aggressive moves to promote clean energy were as important as all the guns and bombs and planes and ships in the defense bill, weād treat it in the same way, by just buyingĀ everything without worrying about the price, because we think itās worthwhile.
This isnāt the first time Democrats have convinced themselves that there was something magical about a particular budget number: In 2009, during internal debates about the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the Affordable Care Act, Obama White House advisers decided that crossing the threshold of a trillion dollars for either bill would make support melt away. As Michael Grunwald put it, āA trillion was a psychological Rubicon.ā
The trillion dollar number became like āCandymanā ā intone the word too many times and a monster would come to destroy you. Voters would recoil in disgust, lawmakers would cower in terror and the bill would die. So they reduced the size of the recovery bill, even knowing it was too small to give the economy the boost it needed.
Today, the centrists seem to believe that $3.5 trillion ā if youāre spending it on Americansā actual needs . . . Ā ā will have the same effect [on public opinion?] as $1 trillion did in 2009.
But you know who doesnāt care about numbers? Republicans. When they want to pass a gigantic tax cut for the wealthy and corporations, they just do it, no matter what it costs.
You know who else doesnāt care? The public. They donāt have strong feelings about whether the [spending side of the] social infrastructure bill should add up to $3.5 trillion or $2.5 trillion (hereās a pollĀ showing that changing the dollar figure has no effect on opinion). Theyāre more interested in what government isĀ doingĀ for them.
Which is exactly as it should be. If only [all of the] Democrats in Washington had enough sense to see things the same way.
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