Tag Archives: COVID-19

This Chart Is Hard To Believe

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I knew the virus is spiking but didn’t realize it’s this bad. The top story in the news has been the election and its weird aftermath. The death rate is lower. We’re doing more testing. But this chart is still very surprising. Yesterday, the US reported 163,000 new cases, compared to 32,000 on April 8th (the day I left the hospital). COVID-19 killed almost 1,200 people yesterday. That number will go up. (The chart is from The New York Times.)

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Our COVID Mortality Rate Is Down 85%?

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That’s a statistic in the news, but what does it mean? CNN reported this on Friday:

Friday’s case count of at least 80,005 surpasses the country’s previous one-day high of 77,362, reported July 16, according to Johns Hopkins University.
 
US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams cautioned earlier Friday that hospitalizations are starting to go up in 75% of the jurisdictions across the country, and officials are concerned that in a few weeks, deaths will also start to increase.
 
The good news, Adams said, is that the country’s Covid-19 mortality rate has decreased by about 85% thanks to multiple factors, including the use of remdesivir, steroids and better management of patients.
 
According to CNN, the Surgeon General  made these remarks during an online discussion of global health policy at Meridian Global Leadership Summit. Meridian is a “non-profit, non-partisan diplomacy center” in Washington. I couldn’t find exactly what he said, either from Meridian’s site, the Surgeon General’s site or the Surgeon General’s Twitter account. The Center for Disease Control doesn’t seem to report a mortality rate.
 
Looking at statistics from The New York Times, however, indicates what the Surgeon General was talking about. Back in mid-April, the US was reporting around 2,200 deaths for every 32,000 confirmed cases. Now 800 deaths are being reported for around 68,000 cases. That translates into 6.9% of cases ending in death in April vs. 1.2% now, a decline of 83%. So it’s true that the mortality rate has dropped quite a lot.
 
This is confirmed by two studies reported by National Public Radio:
 
Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.
 
The article mentions other reasons the mortality rate may be dropping:
 
[Researchers] say that factors outside of doctors’ control are also playing a role in driving down mortality. . . . Mask-wearing may be helping by reducing the initial dose of virus a person receives, thereby lessening the overall severity of illness for many patients. . . . Keeping hospitals below their maximum capacity also helps to increase survival rates. When cases surge and hospitals fill up, “staff are stretched, mistakes are made, it’s no one’s fault — it’s that the system isn’t built to operate near 100%”. . . 
 
This hardly means we’ve turned the corner on COVID-19, as one of the presidential candidates claims. A mortality rate of 7% is still high relative to other diseases. Serious illness is never a joy and even patients who survive COVID-19 sometimes suffer long-term effects.
 
In addition, two other numbers recently reported aren’t encouraging. The pandemic is causing significantly more deaths, either directly or indirectly, than are being reported:
 
In the most updated count to date, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have found that nearly 300,000 more people in the United States died from late January to early October this year compared to the average number of people who died in recent years. Just two-thirds of those deaths were counted as Covid-19 fatalities, highlighting how the official U.S. death count — now standing at about 220,000 [or 225,000] — is not fully inclusive [Stat].
 
One model predicts that the next four months will be especially bad in the US:
 
More than 511,000 lives could be lost by 28 February next year, modeling led by scientists from the University of Washington found.

This means that with cases surging in many states, particularly the upper Midwest, what appears to be a third major peak of coronavirus infections in the US could lead to nearly 300,000 people dying in just the next four months.

In fact the University of Washington warned that the situation will be even more disastrous if states continue to ease off on measures designed to restrict the spread of the virus, such as the shuttering of certain businesses and social distancing edicts. If states wind down such protections, the death toll could top 1 million people in America by 28 February, the UW study found [The Guardian].

Finally, the presidential candidate who doesn’t think we’ve turned the corner offered this timely reminder:

President Txxxx’s plan to beat COVID-19. 

Nine days.

A Day in October 2020

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Below is part of the newsletter produced by Crooked Media for October 6, 2020. They produce one every weekday. It’s an excellent way to keep up with the news, if you can stand keeping up with the news. You can subscribe here (it’s free.)

Many of us questioned President Txxxx’s coronavirus-ridden return to the White House, but now that he’s threatened to travel to Miami, reverted to spreading months-old disinformation about COVID-19, and sent the economy into a nosedive, it seems clear the man’s judgement is as sound as ever.

  • Within moments of arriving home, a highly-medicated Dxxxx Txxxx horrified doctors (and also, everyone) by dramatically removing his mask and releasing a bizarre propaganda video that asserted he contracted coronavirus as an act of…leadership. Today Txxxx proved how much he’s learned from his firsthand leadership experience by spreading the same false comparison between coronavirus and influenza he first promoted 210,000 deaths ago. Social media companies censored those posts, leading Txxxx to cryptically call for the destruction of the internet. He’s back, baby!
  • Not content to shed coronavirus around the hard-hit, poorly-ventilated West Wing, Dxxxx Txxxx has announced his intention to take this infectious show on the road. Txxxx’s lying doctor Sean Conley put out a statement that the president, who was visibly gasping for air upon his return to the White House on Monday, today “reports no symptoms,” and the miraculously recovered 74-year-old tweeted that he’s “looking forward to the debate on the evening of Thursday, October 15th in Miami. It will be great!” That townhall-style debate would be just two weeks after Txxxx (purportedly) began experiencing symptoms, and it is beyond insane for him to consider attending it in person.
  • On Monday Conley suggested that Txxxx’s tweets served as a useful gauge of his mental fitness. We would be interested to know what the good doctor thinks about these ones, in which President Deals shut down all hopes of further coronavirus stimulus until after the election and immediately tanked the stock market. Incidentally, here’s a new poll that found 74 percent of voters think the Senate should prioritize coronavirus relief over confirming Amy Coney Barrett. More Coronavirus, Worse Economy: It’s a bold closing argument from Team Txxxx.

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Meanwhile, as more people in the White House’s orbit fall ill, the administration has worked systematically to make sure we never learn when Txxxx last tested negative, or how many people contracted the virus from him or people at his superspreading events.

  • Stephen Miller has it. Nearly all of the Joint Chiefs of Staff are in quarantine after a Coast Guard admiral tested positive. Txxxx’s Coast Guard aide Jayna McCarron has coronavirus, as does one of his active-duty military valets and a third press office aide. New York Times reporter Michael Shear said his wife has now tested positive: “The collateral damage is going to be pretty significant, I think.” White House employees are rightly scared and angry; one source told Axios, “It’s insane that he would return to the White House and jeopardize his staff’s health when we are still learning of new cases among senior staff. This place is a cesspool.”
  • Txxxx’s recklessness and refusal to conduct contact tracing have consequences beyond the White House grounds. Washington, DC, reported 105 new coronavirus cases on Monday, the city’s highest one-day spike since June. That spike may not be a function of the Rose Garden Misadventure alone. John Hagee, a megachurch pastor and Txxxx advisor, has tested positive; he wasn’t present at the Amy Coney Barrett nomination event, but he did attend a September 15 White House event along with hundreds of people who were largely flouting safety measures. 

Our new reality is almost too surreal to fathom: The president and his allies are not only neglecting their responsibility to bring the pandemic under control, they’re now actively and knowingly spreading a deadly virus themselves. What a good time to don the hazmat suit of democracy and escort them out.

Unquote.

Next they have sections called What Else?, Be Smarter and Is That Hope? Today they ended with:

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A Study in Contrasts

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A few hours ago:Untitled

Fewer hours ago:

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An hour ago:

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Previously, while in public:

It’s basically the flu.

Now that he has it:

It’s a PLAGUE.

It Was Reckless Endangerment or Worse

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At the Rose Garden event last Saturday when they introduced the Republican nominee to the Supreme Court:

Guests mingled, hugged and kissed on the cheek, most without wearing masks. An indoor reception followed the outdoor ceremony.

Seven days later, at least eight people who attended the ceremony have tested positive for the coronavirus, including the president. Several more of the president’s closest aides and advisers have also tested positive.

Then, our president got to work, spreading the joy:

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Of course, we’re only heard about some of the famous people who got the virus in the Rose Garden, at the White House, on Air Force One, at the rally or the fundraisers, not the common folk who rubbed shoulders with the rich and famous, or provided security, or served the drinks.

We knew he was a heartless prick who only cares about himself, but I mean, wow.

Postscript:  The White House doctor (i.e. public relations representative) has now “clarified” the timeline, explaining that when he said “72 hours” he meant “day three”, not “three days ago” (?). So it was actually Thursday night, after all the traveling about, when the president knew he had the virus, not Wednesday morning. Of course, everyone who speaks for the president can be trusted to deliver the unvarnished truth, so there’s nothing to see here. Obviously.