More Budget Baloney From a Leading Political Party

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, issued his proposed federal budget yesterday. The Republican majority on the Budget Committee is expected to approve it. Fortunately, even if the full House of Representatives approves it, the Senate won’t.

Nevertheless, Ryan’s budget is worth knowing about. It will influence the budget Congress eventually agrees on and it offers yet another clear statement of the Republican Party’s insane priorities. 

In brief, the Ryan budget calls for a big tax cut on high incomes, a lot more spending on the military, and a lot less spending on programs like Medicare and food stamps. In addition, Ryan would repeal the Affordable Care Act, even though there are now some 10 million people who have health insurance because of that law (via private insurance or Medicaid).

Ryan claims his budget will eliminate the federal deficit in ten years, despite the tax cuts and increased military spending, because he makes stuff up.

One part of the Republican budget document deals with Social Security. I plan to write more about that in a future post, but for now, consider this amazing sentence from page 66: 

Any value in the balances in the Social Security Trust Fund is derived from dubious government accounting. 

The Treasury Department says the government bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund were worth almost three trillion (not billion, but trillion) dollars at the end of December and were paying the Trust Fund an average interest rate of 3.6%. But, according to the authors of the Republican budget document, those bonds are basically worthless. They’re an accounting fiction. Such is the financial insight demonstrated by Congressman Ryan and his Republican colleagues as they go about planning our economic future. 

Grasping at Flaws

Republicans are doing whatever they can to attack the Affordable Care Act by highlighting people who are supposedly victims of the new law. When reporters look into the details of these sad cases, it turns out that the supposed victims are either lying or ignorant. In one such case, the middle-aged woman described in one of the Republican responses to the State of the Union didn’t know she was eligible for cheaper insurance because she refused to visit one of those evil “Obamacare” websites. One right-wing character responded to this revelation by arguing that it’s mean and unfair to question the story of somebody with cancer.

As Paul Krugman explains (we should all get together and buy this guy a beer or a really nice meal), the ACA does help some people and hurt others. The law tends to help those who are sicker, older and poorer.  It tends to hurt people who are healthier, younger and richer (many of whom will one day be sicker, older and poorer). That’s why the right-wing is having such trouble finding real sympathetic subjects to use in their propaganda. Krugman suggests that when you hear a terribly sad anecdote or see a disturbing advertisement about a sick person who can’t afford treatment anymore or a poor family who can’t afford health insurance because of the ACA, keep in mind that it’s almost certainly right-wing nonsense.

The Usual Fear Mongering Baloney

Fox News headline: “ObamaCare could lead to loss of nearly 2.3 million US jobs, report says”.

Speaker of the House John Boehner tweets: “Pres. Obama’s [health care law] expected to destroy 2.3 million jobs”.

What the Congressional Budget Office really said:

CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive….the largest declines in labor supply will probably occur among lower-wage workers….

The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in business’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely as a reduction in labor force participation and in hours worked relative to what have occurred otherwise rather than as an increase in unemployment (that is, more workers seeking, but not finding jobs) or underemployment (such as part-time workers who would prefer to work more hours per week)….

In other words, some people, especially low-wage workers, will decide to work less because of the ACA, mostly because of the benefits they’ll receive.

I don’t know why those who wrote the report believe this will result in fewer hours being worked. In the case of anyone but the self-employed, employers will presumably still want someone to work those hours. As the supply of labor declines, the demand for labor should increase, resulting in rising wages for some workers and job openings for others (and, of course, low wages and unemployment are still two of our major problems). 

You might even argue (incorrectly) that everybody should work as much as possible, because that’s the capitalist way. That’s very different, however, from saying the ACA is going to destroy millions of jobs. 

As usual, Paul Krugman offers thoughtful commentary on the economics and the social impact here and here.

Moe Should Have Watched “The Wire”

David Simon, the creator of The Wire, spoke recently at a conference in Australia. The Guardian has an edited transcript of his talk here. Some selected paragraphs:

You know if you’ve read Capital or if you’ve got the Cliff Notes, you know that [Marx’s] imaginings of how classical Marxism – of how his logic would work when applied – kind of devolve into such nonsense as the withering away of the state and platitudes like that. But he was really sharp about what goes wrong when capital wins unequivocally, when it gets everything it asks for.

That may be the ultimate tragedy of capitalism in our time, that it has achieved its dominance without regard to a social compact, without being connected to any other metric for human progress.

From this moment forward unless we reverse course, the average human being is worth less on planet Earth. Unless we take stock of the fact that maybe socialism and the socialist impulse has to be addressed again; it has to be married as it was married in the 1930s, the 1940s and even into the 1950s, to the engine that is capitalism.

Mistaking capitalism for a blueprint as to how to build a society strikes me as a really dangerous idea in a bad way. Capitalism is a remarkable engine again for producing wealth. It’s a great tool to have in your toolbox if you’re trying to build a society and have that society advance. You wouldn’t want to go forward at this point without it. But it’s not a blueprint for how to build the just society. There are other metrics besides that quarterly profit report.

And that’s what The Wire was about basically, it was about people who were worth less and who were no longer necessary, as maybe 10 or 15% of my country is no longer necessary to the operation of the economy. It was about them trying to solve, for lack of a better term, an existential crisis. In their irrelevance, their economic irrelevance, they were nonetheless still on the ground occupying this place called Baltimore and they were going to have to endure somehow.

Moe really should have watched The Wire.

Finally, the Perfect Healthcare System!

Breaking news from Washington:

House of Representatives Republican leaders ripped the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urged a “patient-driven health care system, not a government-driven health care system.”

So, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, was asked at a news conference, what does that mean?

“Well,” he said, “When you look at “Obamacare,” what you see is a government-centered health care delivery system. That’s not what the American people want.

“The American people want to be able to pick their own type of health insurance; they want to be able to pick their own doctor; they want to be able to pick their own hospital. That’s what a patient-centered health care system looks like.”

Asked if that was likely to come to a vote next year, Boehner said, “We’ll see.”

Finally, no more in-network-out-of-network! No more we-don’t-accept-Blue-Cross-Medicare-or-Medicaid! No more United-Healthcare-is-no-longer-offered-by-your-company! No more if-I-get-this-job-I’ll-get-health-insurance! No more reasonable-and-customary-charges!

The American people will be able to choose whatever doctor they want and any kind of health care insurance they want. It won’t matter if you’re homeless, you’ll be able to go to the best doctors on Park Avenue. If you stock shelves at Walmart, you’ll be able to get high-quality care at the Mayo Clinic. If your company offers health insurance plans A, B and C, you’ll be able to choose D.

It won’t make any difference to anyone how much doctors, hospitals or insurance companies charge, because the Republicans now have a plan, the ideal plan that nobody else had the courage or insight to propose. In retrospect, however, it’s clearly the only way to guarantee everyone’s right to whatever health care they want without interfering with the free market: 

Every American citizen will have an unlimited supply of money to spend on healthcare! It’s the MONEY IS NO OBJECT plan! (MINO, for short.)

It’s the perfect “conservative” free-market solution, since everything for sale in the healthcare marketplace will be as good as free for consumers, while providers will retain the right to make as much money as possible.

(Note: Aside from replacing the words “government-centered” with “patient-centered”, details of the plan are, to be polite, “sketchy”.)

Meanwhile, here on Earth, there is an informative article in a recent New York Review of Books called “Obamacare: How It Should Be Fixed”. It’s by Arnold Relman, Professor Emeritus at Harvard Medical School. Unfortunately, you have to pay to read the whole thing (after MINO is in effect, we’ll all be able to afford it). But Dr. Relman concludes that our best hope of getting a high-quality, affordable health care system would be a single-payer system built on Accountable Care Organizations, i.e. private medical groups that would be paid by the government, not for every service performed, but for their patients’ overall care:

The only type of ACO [Affordable Care Organization] that has been proven to satisfy patients and physicians is multispecialty group practice. According to the American Medical Group Association, there are now well over 430 such group practices and their number is increasing rapidly as more physicians seek group employment….

Data from the Medical Group Management Association indicate that average staff earnings in groups are fully competitive with earnings in solo or small partnership practice, particularly if the generous fringe benefits that groups usually offer are also considered (for example, office expenses, malpractice insurance, paid vacation, pension plans). And judging from their low turnover rate, physicians who choose employment in successful, well-managed groups are usually satisfied with their job.

However, only a few medical groups currently avoid the inflationary incentives of fee-for-service by contracting with insurance plans that pay them on a per capita basis for comprehensive care of some or all of their patients; and even fewer pay their medical staff by salary….

… I have described in detail how a single-payer system sponsored by the federal government would function when coupled with a reorganized medical care system based on independent multispecialty group practices with salaried physicians. Replacement of all public and private insurance and elimination of itemized bills with a public tax-funded system that simply paid medical groups per capita for comprehensive care would avoid much of the expense and many of the other problems with the current system. The enormous savings could ensure adequate compensation for all the facilities and physicians needed for universal care.

The loss of jobs in the eliminated private insurance industry would probably be more than compensated by increased employment in a greatly expanded public-payer system, and by the new jobs created by the emerging business opportunities created when employers no longer need to pay the health costs of their employees. Government would be able to contain the rise in total health expenditures by its power to set prices and determine the level of taxation required to fund the system, but it need not micromanage medical care. Medical decisions should remain in the hands of physicians and their patients, where they belong.

Most important, this revolution in our health care system would make universal access to good care affordable. It is a revolution that seems inevitable, even though it is not yet on the political horizon.

I’d say it’s far, far beyond the horizon, but at least it’s on planet Earth. Meanwhile, we’ve got the ACA, which is significantly better than what we’ve had.