We’re Causing Global Warming 2158, the Other Side 1

There is a commonly-cited statistic to the effect that 97% of scientists believe that we are causing global climate change. Here’s another statistic:

James Powell, a geochemist and head of the National Physical Science Consortium, has surveyed the peer-reviewed articles in science journals published between November 2012 and December 2013. He found that among the 2,258 articles, written by a total of 9,136 authors, there was only one article by one author who rejected man-made climate change.

But, according to Powell, even the author of that article believes the climate is getting warmer — he just thinks it’s for other reasons, like deforestation. He also happens to be a Russian scientist who expresses concern in his article that Russia will lose income if people stop using so much oil.

So much for the idea that scientists who study the issue are in disagreement, or that there is “pseudo-science by the bucketful” on both sides of the argument (a claim I recently read on another blog). That’s what the global warming-deniers want us to think.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/01/08/why-climate-deniers-have-no-scientific-credibility-only-1-9136-study-authors-rejects-global-warming

The Polar Vortex vs. the Noise Vortex

Many of us cold people now know about the polar vortex. Rush Limbaugh, however, doubts its existence, suggesting it’s part of a hoax perpetrated by the all-powerful liberal media. (That’s entertainment, folks!) Weatherman Al Roker responds with a passage from a 1959 textbook published by the American Meteorological Society:

polar vortex – the large-scale cyclonic circulation in the middle and upper troposphere centered generally in the polar regions.

Meanwhile, the White House science and technology advisor takes two minutes to explain the possible relationship between global climate change and the arrival of the polar vortex in places like St. Louis. It turns out that we hadn’t heard of the polar vortex before because it hasn’t visited us very often. Visits are now more likely. 

Some of This News Is Related (and We’re All Another Day Older)

The Wayne County (Michigan) prosecutor has charged 54-year old Theodore Wafer of Dearborn Heights with second-degree murder, manslaughter and illegal possession of a firearm. He shot Renisha McBride in the face after she crashed her car on his street at 2 a.m. and came to his house, apparently looking for help.

At least one semi-facetious observer recently suggested a link between this kind of thing and the end of the world as we know it. On a related topic – what we’re doing to the planet – a leaked report from a U.N. commission predicts that climate change will reduce the global food supply in coming years, while the world’s population grows (albeit at a declining rate) and the demand for food increases.

An ex-soldier writing in the New York Times accepts the idea that we’ve entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, a concept some scientists have adopted in order to reflect the massive effects we’re having on the planet. The ex-soldier argues that we should think of our civilization as already being dead, just like he used to think of himself as already dead when he was stationed in Iraq. Maybe he’s right and a more fatalistic attitude toward the effects of climate change would make us behave differently. We might go calmly about our business and make lots of necessary changes. On the other hand, we might do even less than we’re doing now.

There is also quite a big difference between one particular soldier dealing with the next few hours of his life and 200 nations composed of 7 billion people doing something about the next 100 years. Global climate change is, after all, a perfect example of the problem of the commons”, i.e. “the depletion of a shared resource by individuals, acting independently and rationally according to each one’s self-interest, despite their understanding that depleting the common resource is contrary to the group’s long-term best interests” (Wikipedia)An economist writing in the American Economic Review admits that:

as the US and other economies have grown, the carrying capacity of the planet—in regard to both natural resources and environmental quality—has become a greater concern….While small communities frequently provide modes of oversight and methods for policing their citizens…, commons problems have spread across communities and even across nations. In some of these cases, no overarching authority can offer complete control, rendering common problems more severe.

Yet he concludes that “economics is well-positioned to offer better understanding and better policies to address these ongoing challenges” (maybe he felt the need for an upbeat ending).

Still, the U.N. Climate Change Conference is underway in Warsaw. There are people advocating for a steady-state economy in which population growth and the use of natural resources are limited. A group of eminent scientists recently said that the “evidence indicating that our civilisation has already caused significant global warming is overwhelming”, but it’s still possible to limit the increase to a sustainable 2 degrees Centigrade if we act quickly. 

Meanwhile, China has just decided to remove its restriction on city-dwellers having more than one child, which will mean another million or two young Chinese every year, and Japan is substantially cutting its greenhouse gas reduction target in order to compensate for shutting down its nuclear power plants.

In other news, Andy Kaufman is, unfortunately, still dead.

Good News If You’re a Tree

The amount of carbon dixode in the atmosphere has now passed 400 parts per million for a whole day, as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. There hasn’t been this much CO2 in the air for 3 million years, before humans evolved. The level of CO2 fluctuates as plants absorb it and release oxygen, but the trend line indicates that we are generating the stuff so quickly, the plants aren’t going to keep up. 

Nobody knows for certain what the effects will be, but the scientists who study climate change are deeply concerned: “It feels like an inevitable march toward disaster” and “the time to do something was yesterday”.

One of the idiots in Congress is quoted as saying we shouldn’t worry, since CO2 only makes up 0.04 percent of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that’s not how chemistry works. Research shows that current levels of CO2 are very effective at trapping heat near the earth’s surface. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/science/earth/carbon-dioxide-level-passes-long-feared-milestone.html