Highly-respected journalist James Fallows has a site called Breaking the News. In the interesting installment below, he discusses journalistic screwups and how to avoid being taken in by them:
We all make mistakes. People, organizations, countries. The best we can do is admit and face them. And hope that by learning from where we erred, weâll avoid greater damage in the future.
Relentless and systematic self-critical learning is why commercial air travel has become so safe. (As described here, and recent posts about the JFK close call here and here.) Good military organizations conduct âlessons learnedâ exercises after victories or defeats. Good businesses and public agencies do the same after they succeed or fail.
We in the press are notably bad at formally examining our own errors. That is why âpublic editorâ positions have been so important, and why it was such a step backward for the New York Times to abolish that role nearly six years ago….
Hereâs an [example of a journalistic mistake]: the buildup to the âRed Waveâ that never happened in the 2022 midterms.
Pundits and much of the mainstream press spent most of 2022 describing Joe Bidenâs unpopularity and the Democratsâ impending midterm wipeout. As it happened, Biden and the party nationwide did remarkably well….
In its news coverage, not the opinion page, the New York Times had been among the most certain-sounding in preordaining the Democratsâ loss. [On] its front page just one day before the election, one lead-story had the sub-head âPartyâs Outlook Bleak,â referring to Biden and the Democrats. It mentioned forecasts of âa devastating defeatâ in the midterms. The other storyâs sub-head was âG.O.P Shows Optimism as Democrats Brace for Losses.â The first paragraph of that story said voters âshowed clear signs of preparing to reject Democratic control.â Again, these were news, not opinion, pieces.
Seven weeks later, the Times ran a front-page story on why so many people had called the election wrongâand how the Red Wave assumption, fed by GOP pollsters, hampered Democratsâ fund-raising in many close races. The only mention of the paperâs own months-long role in fostering this impression was a three-word aside, in the 13th paragraph of a thousand-word story. According to the story, the GOP-promoted Red Wave narrative âŠ
âŠspilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.
The three words, in case you missed them, were âincluding The Times.â
An NYT public editor like Margaret Sullivan or Daniel Okrent might have gone back to ask the reporters and editors what they should learn.
What are signs of lessons-unlearned that readers can look for, and that we reporters and editors should avoid?
An easy one is to spend less time, space, and effort on prediction of any sort, and more on explaining what is going on and why.
Here are a few more:
1) Not everything is a “partisan fight”.
[A NY Times story about the debt ceiling]Â illustrates the drawbacks of reflexively casting issues as political struggles, by describing a potential debt-ceiling crisis as a âpartisan fight.â
In case you have forgotten, the âdebt ceilingâ is a serious problem but not a serious issue. In brief:
-The debt-ceiling is a problem, because failing to take the routine step of raising it has the potential to disrupt economies all around the world, starting with the U.S.
-It is not an issue, because there are zero legitimate arguments for what the Republican fringe is threatening now. (See Thomas Geogheganâs recent article….
Itâs like threatening to blow up refineries, if you donât like an administrationâs energy policy, or threatening to put anthrax into the water supply, if you donât like their approach to public health. These moves would give you “leverage,” just like a threat not to raise the debt ceiling. But they’re thuggery rather than policy.
If you prefer a less violent analogy: since these payments are for spending and tax cuts that have already been enacted, this is like refusing to pay the restaurant check after youâve finished dinner.
This is not a âpartisan fightâ or a âstandoff.â Those terms might apply to differences on immigration policy or a nomination. This is a know-nothing threat to public welfare, by an extremist faction that has put one party in its thrall.
Reporters: donât say âstandoffâ or âdisagreement,â or present this as just another chapter of âWashington dysfunction.â
Readers: be wary when you see reporters using those terms.
Here are some more phrases that should make you wary as a reader. They are phrases like âa picture emergesâ or âpaints a picture.â These are clichĂ©s a reporter uses to state a conclusion while pretending not to do so. Others in the same category: âsure to raise questionsâ; âsuggest a narrativeâ; âwill be used by opponentsâ; and so on.
Consider again from the NYT, this new âinsideâ report on Joe Bidenâs handling of classified documents.
It was a classic legal strategy by Mr. Biden and his top aides â cooperate fully with investigators in the hopes of giving them no reason to suspect ill intent. But it laid bare a common challenge for people working in the West Wing: The advice offered by a presidentâs lawyers often does not make for the best public relations strategy.
This might be a âclassic legal strategy.â It might also be following the rules. The presentation reflects a choice about how to âframeâ a story.
The mainstream press makes things an âissue,â by saying they are an issue. Or saying âraises questionsâ âsuggests a narrative,â âleft open to criticism,â âeroded their capacity,â and so on. This gives them the pose of being âobjectiveââweâre just reporters, But it is a choice.
My long-time friend Jonathan Alter [had] an op-ed column in the NYT arguing that the narrative about Bidenâs handling of the few classified documents will be hugely destructive to him and the Democrats. Even though, as he says, the realities of his classified-documents case are in no way comparable to [the former president’s]. (More on the differences here.)
As a matter of prognostication, maybe Jon Alter is right. I hope he isnât. As he notes, Biden in office has time and again beaten pundit expectations [and now it turns out Mike Pence had documents too].
But as a matter of journalistic practice, I think our colleagues need to recognize our enormous responsibility and âagencyâ about what becomes an issue or controversy. âRaises questions,â âsuggests a narrative,â âcreates obstaclesââthese arenât like tornados or wildfires, things that occur on their own and we just report on. They are judgments reporters and editors make, âframesâ they choose to present. And can choose not to.
Which leads us toâŠ
3) Not all “scandals” are created equal.
Here are things enormously hyped at the time, that look like misplaced investigative zeal in retrospect:
â (a) The Whitewater âscandal.â For chapter and verse on why this was so crazy, see the late Eric Boehlert, with a very fine-grained analysis back in 2007; plus Eric Alterman at the same time; plus Gene Lyons, who lives in Arkansas and wrote a book called Fools for Scandal a decade earlier.
I would be amazed if more than 1% of todayâs Americans could explain what this âscandalâ was about. I barely can myself. But as these authors point out, it led domino-style to a zealot special prosecutor (Kenneth Starr, himself later disgraced), and to Paula Jones, and to Monica Lewinsky, and to impeachment. It tied up governance for years.
â(b) The but-her-emails âscandalâ involving Hillary Clinton in 2016. A famous Gallup study showed that the voting public heard more about this than anything else.
I doubt it. Yet it was what our media leaders emphasized. Iâm not aware that any of them has publicly reckoned with what they should have learned from their choices in those days.
But todayâs news gives us a chance to learn, with:
â(c) The Biden classified-documents âscandal”.
What unites these three âscandalsâ is that there was something there. Possibly the young Bill and Hillary Clinton had something tricky in their home-state real estate deal. Probably Hillary Clinton did something with her emails that she shouldnât have. Apparently Joe Biden should have been more careful about the thousands of documents that must be in his offices, libraries, etc.
But âsomethingâ does not mean âhistory-changing discovery.â In the 50 years since the original Watergate, the political press has palpably yearned for another âbig one.â So every âscandalâ or âcontradictionâ gets this could be the big one treatment. And this in turn flattens coverage of all âscandalsâ as equivalent. Itâs a slurry of âthey all do it,â âitâs always a mess,â âtheyâre all lying about everythingâ that makes it hard to tell big issues from little ones.
We see this with bracketing of the T____ and Biden âclassified documentâ cases. They both have special prosecutors, so they can be presented as a pair.
Human intelligence involves the ability to see patterns. (Two cases involving classified documents!) But also the ability to see differences. (In one case, a president âplayed politicsâ by cooperating with the authorities. In another, by lying to and defying them.)
The similarities are superficial. The differences are profound.
From past errors of judgment, we in the media can learn which to emphasize.
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