It’s Supposed To Be One Person, One Vote

I can’t remember a less thankful Thanksgiving than last week’s. It’s hard to be grateful for ordinary well-being when the government’s executive branch is undergoing a hostile takeover. And it’s a hostile takeover by a gang of crooks, incompetents, bigots and cranks, otherwise known as the President-elect, his cabinet and his senior staff.

So it’s as good a time as any to review the rotten state of American democracy. We can even consider how we might fix it. (I say “we” because “they” live off the rot.)

British journalist Mehdi Hasan summarizes several ways in which our political system sucks:

#1:  We don’t have a national election. We have 51 separate elections. That’s how a woman who gets 65.0 million votes (and counting) can lose to a monster who gets 62.6 million. Those 51 contests result in 538 people being elected to the Electoral College. Those 538 people will select the new President on December 19.

#2: Our political campaigns take months and months and cost more per capita than in any other country. Most of the money goes to round-the-clock TV advertisements in key states (see #1). Those of who live in the rest of the country are taken for granted. 

#3: Relatively few of us vote. The last time 60% of the voting age population voted was in 1968. Most developed countries do much better.

#4: Rather than making it easier to vote, states run by Republicans are making it more difficult. The goal of this “voter suppression” is to stop as many Democrats as possible, especially African Americans, from voting. 

#5: Local politicians, not independent commissions, fix the boundaries of Congressional districts once every ten years. They put as many voters of the other party as possible in bizarrely-shaped districts while creating dependable majorities for their own party in the other districts. This process of “gerrymandering” – which the Republicans did so well in 2010 – helps explain why members of the House of Representatives hardly ever lose their jobs (97% were reelected this year). 

Mr. Hasan concludes:

Is this really what we define as democracy? Or is this, to quote the president-elect, a “rigged” system? Rigged not against Trump and the Republicans but against the poor, against ethnic minorities, against Democrats but, above all else, against basic democratic norms and principles and pretty simple notions of equality and fairness?

This isn’t a time for denial or deflection. The American political system is broken. Far from being the “world’s greatest democracy”, … representative democracy in the United States seems further hollowed out with every election cycle.

In fact, Mr. Hasan left out one of the worst failures of American politics. Some votes count more than others. We give lip service to the principle of One Person, One Vote, but the Constitution gives precedence to states with smaller populations. Small states are over-represented in the U.S. Senate, which determines who will be on the Supreme Court, and in the Electoral College, which determines who will be President.

Throw in the effects of geography and gerrymandering, and even the House of Representatives fails to meet the One Person, One Vote standard. This year, the Republicans beat the Democrats in House races by 61.5 million to 58.3 million. Ideally, that should translate into a slim 223-212 majority for the Republicans, not the 241-194 majority the Republicans will actually have. 

Not only do the residents of small states have excessive representation in the Federal government, but so do white voters. That’s because the smallest states have fewer minorities. From The Progressive:

The states with the fewest minorities (Idaho, New Hampshire, Nebraska, [etc.]) represent a total electoral college block of thirty-seven electoral votes. Based on their actual population, however, they should only be getting twenty electoral college votes…. 

Meanwhile, if we add up the ten states with the largest minority populations (California, Texas, Florida, [etc.]), we find that, based on population, they should be getting 276 electoral votes. In reality, though, they only get 240…

The problem is that not only do states vary greatly on who has access to the ballot box but, assuming you have successfully cleared the bureaucratic hurdles to get a voter ID card, waited in line for several hours, and cleared all the other voter suppression tactics and actually voted in your state, the [Federal] system itself is tilted in favor of certain states and certain voters.

So, borrowing a phrase from one or two Russian revolutionaries, what is to be done? How can we make America more democratic and, as a result, more Democratic? It sure won’t be easy. All right wing ideologies, from the 18th century on, have had a common theme. They fear that their power is at risk, so they fight like hell to maintain their position in the hierarchy. But let’s think about how we might reform the system anyway.  

A few years ago, the political scientist Norman Ornstein proposed a Voting Rights Act for the 21st century (that was soon after the Republicans on the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act for the 20th century). He recommended, among other things:

  • The Federal government would create a standardized, personalized ballot that everyone would use to vote for President and members of Congress.
  • The Social Security Administration would issue a modern photo ID to everyone with a Social Security number (which these days means every U.S. citizen). If you had one of these ID’s and were 18 or older, you would be eligible to vote.
  • The government would allow weekend voting at any local polling place, with early voting the week before [why not have polling stations in every U.S. post office, for example?].

Mr. Ornstein didn’t mention the problem of making sure votes are properly counted, but that would be an obvious improvement too. For example, David Dill, a professor of computer science, founded the Verified Voting Foundation. He explains here how easy it would be to interfere with one of our elections. Professor Dill proposes, therefore, that: 

We need to audit computers by manually examining randomly selected paper ballots and comparing the results to machine results. Audits require a voter-verified paper ballot, which the voter inspects to confirm that his or her selections have been correctly and indelibly recorded… Auditing methods have recently been devised that are much more efficient than those used in any state. It is important that audits be performed on every contest in every election, so that citizens do not have to request manual recounts to feel confident about election results. With high-quality audits, it is very unlikely that election fraud will go undetected whether perpetrated by another country or a political party.

There is no reason we can’t implement these measures before the 2020 elections. As a nation, we need to recognize the urgency of the task, to overcome the political and organizational obstacles that have impeded progress.

Finally, there are three other reforms that hardly need mentioning.

The Electoral College was meant to protect small states and slave-owning states back in the 18th century. It still has one valid purpose: the members of the Electoral College can stop a truly unqualified or dangerous person from becoming President. (Small states get more than enough protection from the U.S. Senate and the Supreme Court.) If, however, the Electoral College allows T—p to become President, there is no reason to think it will ever fulfill its remaining purpose. That means we need to either amend the Constitution to get rid of the Electoral College or make the damn thing superfluous (the latter option is the goal of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which I wrote about earlier this month).

A second obvious reform is to institute a less partisan way of designing Congressional districts, that is, to limit the effect of gerrymandering. Yesterday, three Federal judges ordered North Carolina to redraw its legislative districts and hold a special, more representative election next year. Non-partisan commissions can do a better job at drawing district lines than politicians and their cronies. So can software, as described here, for example.

Of course, the last obvious change we need to make is campaign finance reform. Rich people and corporations should not exert exorbitant influence in a democracy. As the saying goes, it’s supposed to be One Person, One Vote, not One Dollar, One Vote.  Now all we have to do is convince, replace, out-vote or out-maneuver the right-wing reactionaries who stand in our way. 

“The Slime Factor Was Overwhelming”

T—p slithered into the offices of The New York Times this week for an on-the-record chat with the paper’s publisher and a few editors, reporters and columnists. Times columnist Charles Blow didn’t attend. He explains why:

I will say proudly and happily that I was not present at this meeting. The very idea of sitting across the table from a demagogue who preyed on racial, ethnic and religious hostilities and treating him with decorum and social grace fills me with disgust, to the point of overflowing. Let me tell you here where I stand on your “I hope we can all get along” plea: Never.

Mr. Blow concludes:

No, Mr. Trump, we will not all just get along. For as long as a threat to the state is the head of state, all citizens of good faith and national fidelity — and certainly this columnist — have an absolute obligation to meet you and your agenda with resistance at every turn.

I know this in my bones, and for that I am thankful.

Amen to that and thank you, Charles Blow.

His column, which deserves reading in its entirety, is here.

Audit the Vote. Fight for Truth.

Every four years when we vote for President there are stories about ballots being miscounted or results being manipulated. It’s an American tradition to wonder if a close election was stolen, especially when your candidate unexpectedly lost. That tradition has only gotten stronger as electronic voting machines have become more common.

When I voted two weeks ago, I pushed invisible buttons on a big screen that made little ‘X’s appear, followed by a red button marked “Cast Your Vote”.  As always, I assumed my votes were accurately transmitted somewhere and were properly counted. It’s a matter of trusting our political institutions and civil servants.

But these days it’s also a matter of trusting the private companies that sell the machines and software that count millions of votes. That’s why, for years now, experts on voting have called for changes that would make electronic voting more secure and easier to audit. For instance, all voting machines should create a paper trail that could be used to check the results (I don’t even know if the machines we use in our county create a paper trail that could be reviewed if the results were audited).

This year, of course, there is another reason to wonder about the election results. Russia has some of the best computer hackers in the world and it’s almost certain that they successfully interfered with our election. National security officials released a statement in October accusing Russia hackers of collecting and distributing thousands of personal emails from the Clinton campaign. We don’t know precisely what effect the publication of those emails had on the campaign, but it’s fair to say it didn’t help the Democrats.

Stolen emails weren’t the only subject of that October statement: 

Some states have also recently seen scanning and probing of their election-related systems, which in most cases originated from servers operated by a Russian company… [Our agencies] assess that it would be extremely difficult for someone, including a nation-state actor, to alter actual ballot counts or election results by cyber attack or intrusion. This assessment is based on the decentralized nature of our election system in this country and the number of protections state and local election officials have in place. States ensure that voting machines are not connected to the Internet, and there are numerous checks and balances as well as extensive oversight at multiple levels built into our election process.

Nevertheless, [the Department of Homeland Security] continues to urge state and local election officials to be vigilant and seek cyber-security assistance from DHS. A number of states have already done so. DHS is providing several services to state and local election officials to assist in their cyber-security. These services include cyber “hygiene” scans of Internet-facing systems, risk and vulnerability assessments, information sharing about cyber incidents, and best practices for securing voter registration databases and addressing potential cyber threats.

All right, so considering the longstanding concerns about electronic voting in general, and the likelihood that Russia tried to access some of our election systems this year, it isn’t crazy to be more concerned than usual about this election. Throw in Clinton’s surprising defeat in a few key states where she was expected to win, plus some strange-looking results from those states, and we’re now seeing stories like these from the Guardian: 

“Hillary Clinton urged to call for election vote recount in battleground states” (here)

“Jill Stein prepares to request election recounts in battleground states” (here)

It should be noted that it wasn’t the Clinton campaign (or even the Stein campaign) that began calling for an audit of the election results. Two election experts, Ron Rivest and Philip Stark, made their case a few days ago in USA Today. (Rivest is the Institute Professor at MIT and a member of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission Technical Guidelines Development Committee, while Stark is Associate Dean of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at UC Berkeley and a member of the board of advisers of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission).

They’ve been joined by J. Alex Halderman, who is Professor of Computer Science and Engineering at the University of Michigan and the Director of Michigan’s Center for Computer Security & Society. Halderman is an acknowledged expert in the field of electronic voting security. This is from a statement he posted today:

Were this year’s deviations from pre-election polls the results of a cyberattack? Probably not. I believe the most likely explanation is that the polls were systematically wrong, rather than that the election was hacked. But I don’t believe that either one of these seemingly unlikely explanations is overwhelmingly more likely than the other. The only way to know whether a cyberattack changed the result is to closely examine the available physical evidence — paper ballots and voting equipment in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, nobody is ever going to examine that evidence unless candidates in those states act now, in the next several days, to petition for recounts.

Halderman also explains how a foreign power might tamper with the election in a few key counties in a few key states, giving an unearned Electoral College victory to a walking disaster.

We don’t know yet whether Clinton will request recounts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and possibly pull out her own Electoral College victory. It’s rumored that some senior Democrats don’t want to rock the boat and give credence to T—p’s claim that the election would be “rigged”. I sincerely hope that’s not the case. This isn’t one of those times when it would be better for the country if everyone relaxed and supported the apparent President-elect. (That’s what many leading Democrats said during the 2000 election fiasco and look where it got us.)

Finally, as an example of the kind of unaudited result that’s drawing attention, below are the voting histories of two counties in Michigan going back to 1980. Macomb and Oakland counties have usually shown similar levels of support for Democrats and Republicans in presidential elections. 

For some reason, however, this year the two counties swerved apart. It looks like Macomb County’s support for the Democrat went way down and its support for the Republican went way up. That’s in comparison to Oakland County’s vote this year and Macomb County’s election history. Maybe it’s just one of those things. Maybe it’s the beginning of a new voting pattern in Macomb County. Or maybe it’s evidence that something went seriously wrong in a key county in Michigan and needs to be looked into. Who knows? (Outside Russia, I mean.)

Macomb 
Democratic
Oakland 
Democratic
 Delta Macomb
Republican
Oakland 
Republican
 Delta
1980 40.4% 35.6% 4.80% 51.0% 54.7% -3.70%
1984 33.3% 32.8% 0.50% 66.2% 66.7% -0.50%
1988 38.8% 37.8% 1.00% 60.3% 61.3% -1.00%
1992 37.4% 38.6% -1.20% 42.3% 43.6% -1.30%
1996 49.5% 47.8% 1.70% 39.4% 43.5% -4.10%
2000 50.0% 49.3% 0.70% 47.5% 48.1% -0.60%
2004 48.8% 49.8% -1.00% 50.2% 49.3% 0.90%
2008 53.4% 56.4% -3.00% 44.7% 41.9% 2.80%
2012 51.3% 53.4% -2.10% 47.3% 45.4% 1.90%
2016 42.1% 51.7% -9.60% 53.6% 43.6% 10.00%

Curious, isn’t it? This is why we need to #AuditTheVote before it’s too late. We don’t have anything to lose by fighting for the truth.

Whatever Happened to the Scandal of the Century?

It seems to have disappeared right after the election. I guess because it was only of titanic importance when it supposedly revealed everything rotten about one of the candidates. Now nobody cares. 

But for anyone still wondering what happened, below are two word clouds that summarize Gallup’s interviews with 30,000 voters between July and September. Voters were asked “What specifically do you recall reading, hearing or seeing about <Donald T—p> or <Hillary Clinton> in the last day or two?”

Words associated with the Orange Menace are on the left. Words associated with Clinton are on the right.

trump-word-cloud-getty

That one big blue word sure leaps off the page!

But notice some of the other memorable words that came up when people thought of Hillary Clinton: “lie”, “health”, “scandal”, “FBI”, “pneumonia”, “foundation”. Is it any wonder that the lying, corrupt, scandal-plagued, secretive, sickly candidate lost Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin by less than 1% of the vote? Move two or three of those states into Clinton’s column and January suddenly looks much brighter for America and the world.

While we’re on the subject, consider “Don’t Call Clinton a Weak Candidate: It Took Decades of Scheming to Beat Her” in The Guardian. It’s a brief but tragic summary of the obstacles Clinton faced and almost overcame two weeks ago.

It Isn’t Too Late To Stop Him

When Michigan finishes auditing its election, T—p is expected to have 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232. She will have received a couple million more votes nationwide, maybe 2.5 million more, but that won’t matter. 

Therefore, when the Electoral College votes next month, we only need 37 Republican electors to demonstrate some bravery and good sense – or to follow orders from the Republican hierarchy, a very different thing – and vote for someone other than T—p. If that happens, he won’t get the required 270 electoral votes to become President.

Assuming Hillary Clinton doesn’t get 270 either (it’s highly unlikely that any Republican electors would vote for a Democrat), and the Kasich/Kaine national unity ticket I proposed fails to sweep the nation (despite the 100 people, many of them real, who have signed my petition so far), the election will be decided by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

According to the little-known 12th Amendment to the Constitution, each of the 50 states will get one vote. There will be three candidates in the running. Presumably, two of them will be T—p and Clinton. But the third will be whoever came in third in the Electoral College. Maybe it will be Mike Pence. Or Paul Ryan. Or Matthew McConaughey. Or you.

The voting would continue until one of the candidates received at least 26 votes. (Meanwhile, the Senate would be picking the Vice President.) T—p might win in the House anyway, depending on who that third candidate was, but the Republican leadership could easily find an excuse to dump T—p for a more traditional Republican, protecting us from the worst. President. Ever. 

Of course, I didn’t expect my petition to take flight and change history (although I kind of hoped it would), but anything any of us can do to “normalize” the idea that the Electoral College should intervene is worth doing. The more we spread the idea, the more acceptable the idea will become, especially because rejecting terrible candidates is part of the Electoral College’s job!

And the idea is spreading. Yesterday, a Democratic elector wrote an article for Daily Kos called “Yes, I am one of those 538 national electors and the Electoral College is in play”. He is trying to get Republican electors to vote for anyone but T—p. The Denver Post has covered the story (although the accompanying video throws cold water on the idea, because that’s what seasoned, cynical political reporters are expected to do).

Today, a professor of journalism and political science published an article at The Atlantic entitled “The Electoral College Was Meant to Stop Men Like Trump From Being President: The founders envisioned electors as people who could prevent an irresponsible demagogue from taking office”.

His conclusion:

Before this election, I supported abolishing the Electoral College. Now I think America needs electors who, in times of national emergency, can prevent demagogues from taking power.

Go ahead and call me an elitist; Donald Trump has changed the way I view American government. Before this year, I would have considered Hamilton’s demand for independent-minded electors who could prevent candidates with “talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity” from winning the presidency to be antiquated and retrograde. Now I think the framers were prescient and I was naïve. Eighteen months ago, I could never have imagined President Donald Trump. Now I’m grateful that, two hundred and twenty-seven years ago, they did.

So please spread the word. It isn’t too late.